Should India Adopt A One Child Policy? Data Suggests Otherwise.

As of 2019, the population of India was approximately 1.37 billion, bringing it closer to the most populous nation, China which had a population of 1.43 billion (ourworldindata.org). By 2027, India is expected to overtake China to become the most populous country on this planet with an estimated population of 1.47 billion. While China’s population is expected to start declining later this decade, it is estimated that the population of India will continue to grow and reach a peak of 1.7 billion in the late 2050s before starting to decline. Between now and 2060, India is expected to add over 400 million people.

Looking at the staggering population numbers, every now and then there are discussions papers, demand from political parties among other to introduce measures to curb the population growth. There are good arguments both in favour and against policy decisions like One Child Policy. Basis the recently released report by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MoHFW) — Health and Family Welfare Statistics 2019–20 (https://main.mohfw.gov.in/sites/default/files/HealthandFamilyWelfarestatisticsinIndia201920.pdf), I am of the opinion that we may not need such policy measures. Two main reasons to support the argument:

First, India is already on the verge of witnessing its Total Fertility Rate (TFR) at the national level falling below the replacement rate. The TFR of India as of 2017 was 2.2. A TFR of 2.1 and above is considered a replacement rate. The TFR rate which was 2.8 in 2006, has been falling constantly. If we break the data into Urban and Rural, the Urban TFR has been below the replacement rate since 2006 and has been continuously falling. Even the Rural TFR has witnessed a decline from 3.1 in 2006 to 2.4 as of 2017. With India likely to see migration to Urban areas in the coming decades, this boasts well for the policy planners.

In addition, if we look at the data at the state level, among the major states, Bihar has the highest TFR of 3.2, closely followed by UP-3.0, MP-2.7, Rajasthan-2.6, Jharkhand-2.5, Chattisgarh-2.4 and Assam-2.3 are the seven states which have a TFR higher than the national average whereas Gujarat and Haryana are at par with the national average. Apart from these, the other states are well below the national as well as replacement rate.

Source: Health and Family Welfare Statistics, 2019-20.

Second, since the implementation of laws and regulations has always been an Achilles’ heel for India, the policy planners and lawmakers should control their urge to implement a national policy to such an effect. Moreover, in 12 of the 22 states mentioned above, the TFR is already below the replacement rate; hence it doesn’t make sense to introduce a national policy on population control.

It’s the erstwhile BIMARU states (Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh) along with the newly formed Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand (carved out from Madhya Pradesh and Bihar, respectively) which are not only the leading seven states on the basis of TFR but also amongst the most populous states in the country. The combined population of these seven states along with Haryana and Gujarat is over 700 million or over 50 per cent of the country’s population.

While the combined population of these states is huge and will have a substantial impact on the population outcomes of the nation as a whole, but instead of a national level policy, state-specific policy interventions will address the challenges better. It will also help in saving valuable resources (money, manpower, time, distraction from other key issues, political slugfest) both in states which do not need to enact/implement such policy measures as well as at the national level.

Hence, India should not look at implementing a one-child policy and rather should just focus on education and awareness regarding population control through its ongoing family planning programme.

As Ruchir Sharma, the Head of Emerging Markets — Morgan Stanley writes in his book (10 Rules of Successful Nation) that successful nations will fight population decline. We are witnessing the economic decline of most of the EU countries, Japan, among others as their populations continue to fall. As India strives to fulfil the dream of a quality of life to its billion-plus population in the present and plan to maintain an economic growth fueled by a large population well into the future, it’s not only a tight rope walk, but also a double-edged sword.